Personal Finance Articles

Article / Updated 05-27-2022

Plenty of younger folks have debts to pay and lack an emergency reserve of money for unexpected expenses. High-cost debts, such as on a credit card, can be a major impediment to investing, in particular, and accomplishing your future personal and financial goals, in a broader sense. A high interest rate keeps the debt growing and can cause your debt to spiral out of control, which is why dealing with such consumer debt should be your first priority, just before establishing an emergency reserve. Pay off high-cost consumer debt Paying down debts isn’t nearly as exciting as investing, but it can make your investment decisions less difficult. Rather than spending your time investigating specific investments, paying off your debts with money you’ve saved may indeed be your best investment. Consumer debt includes borrowing on credit cards, auto loans, and the like, which are often costly ways to borrow. Banks and other lenders charge higher interest rates for consumer debt than for debt for investments, such as real estate and business, because consumer loans are the riskiest type of loans for a lender. Risk means the chance of the borrower’s defaulting and being unable to pay back all that he or she borrowed. Many folks have credit card debt that costs 18 percent or more per year in interest. Some credit cards levy interest rates well above 20 percent if you make a late payment or two. Reducing and eventually eliminating this debt with your savings is like putting your money in an investment with a guaranteed tax-free return equal to the rate that you pay on your debt. For example, if you have outstanding credit card debt at 18 percent interest, paying off that debt is the same as putting your money to work in an investment with a guaranteed 18 percent tax-free annual return. Because the interest on consumer debt isn’t tax-deductible, you would need to earn more than 18 percent by investing your money elsewhere to net 18 percent after paying taxes. Earning such high investing returns is highly unlikely, and to earn those returns, you’d be forced to take great risk. Consumer debt is hazardous to your long-term financial health (not to mention damaging to your credit score and future ability to borrow for a home or otherwise investments) because it encourages you to borrow against your future earnings. Tapping credit card debt may make sense if you’re financing a business. If you don’t have home equity, personal loans (through a credit card or auto loan) may actually be your lowest-cost source of small-business financing. Establish an emergency reserve You never know what life will bring, so having an accessible reserve of cash to meet unexpected expenses makes good financial sense. If you have generous parents or dear relatives, you can certainly consider using them as your emergency reserve. Just be sure you ask them in advance how they feel about that before you count on receiving funding from them. If you don’t have a financially flush family member, the onus is on you to establish a reserve. You should have at least three months’ worth of living expenses to as much as six months’ worth of living expenses as an emergency reserve. Invest this personal-safety-net money in a money market fund. You may also be able to borrow against your employer-based retirement account or against your home equity, should you find yourself in a bind, but these options are much less desirable. If you don’t have a financial safety net, you may be forced, under duress, to sell an investment (at a relatively low price) that you’ve worked hard for. And selling some investments, such as real estate, can take time and cost significant money (transaction costs, taxes, and so on). Riskier investments like stocks aren’t a suitable place to keep your emergency money invested. While stocks historically have returned about 9 percent per year, about one-third of the time, stocks decline in value in a given year, sometimes substantially. Stocks can drop and have dropped 20, 30, or 50 percent or more over relatively short periods of time. Suppose that such a decline coincides with an emergency, such as the loss of your job or a health problem that creates major medical bills. Your situation may force you to sell at a loss, perhaps a substantial one. Stocks are intended to be a longer-term investment, not an investment that you expect (or need) to sell in the near future.

Article / Updated 05-26-2022

Many trend‐following trading systems use a moving average for their starting points. In this trend‐following example, the system is designed for position trading, which means you use a relatively long moving average. Short selling isn’t permitted with this simple system. The first step is to define buy and sell rules for your initial testing. The actual code for defining these rules depends on your specific system‐development package. Therefore, trading rules are described as generally as possible. The rules for an initial test may look like this: Buy at tomorrow’s opening price when today’s price crosses and closes above the 50‐day exponential moving average (EMA). Sell at tomorrow’s opening price when today’s price crosses and closes below the 50‐day EMA. To test whether using a moving average as a starting point is a good idea in a trend‐following system, apply these two rules to ten years of historical data for the stocks of your choice. After testing this idea, you find that this simple system works fairly well when stock prices are trending, but it’s likely to trigger many losing trades when the prices of stocks are range bound. You can try to avoid these losing trades, and possibly improve your overall trading results, by filtering out trading‐range situations. One way to accomplish that goal is by changing the buy rule to read as follows: Buy at tomorrow’s open when the following conditions are true: Today’s closing price is above the 50‐day EMA. The stock crossed above the 50‐day EMA sometime during the last 5 days. Today’s 50‐day EMA is greater than the 50‐day EMA from 5 days ago. These added conditions serve as signal confirmation. When you test these rules, you find they reduce the number of whipsaw trades for most stocks, but they’re also likely to delay buy and sell signals on profitable trades and thus usually result in smaller profits on those trades. However, this adjustment makes the overall system more profitable because the number of losses is reduced. You can find out whether other changes that you can make in your simple system can actually improve profitability. You may, for example, test different types of moving averages. Try, for example, a simple moving average (SMA) instead of an exponential moving average (EMA). Or you may want to try using different time frames for your moving average, such as 9‐day, 25‐day, or 100‐day moving ­averages. Identifying system‐optimization pitfalls Most system‐development and testing software comes equipped with a provision for system optimization, which allows you to fine‐tune the technical analysis tools used in your trading system. You can, for example, tell the system to find the time frame of the moving average that produces the highest profit for one stock and then ask it to do the same thing for a different stock. Some systems enable you to test this factor simultaneously for many stocks. Although this approach is alluring, using it is likely to cause you trouble. If you find, for example, that a 22‐day moving average works best for one stock, a 37‐day moving average works best for the next stock, and another stock performs best using a 74‐day moving average, you’re going to run into problems. The set of circumstances leading to these optimized results won’t likely repeat in precisely the same way again in the future. It’s almost guaranteed that whatever optimized parameters you may find for these moving averages won’t be the optimal choices when trading real capital. This is a simple example of a problem that’s well known to scientists and economists who build mathematic models to forecast future events. It’s called curve fitting because you’re molding your model to fit the historical data. You can expend quite a bit of effort fine‐tuning a system to identify all the major trends and turning points in historical data for a particular stock, but that effort isn’t likely to result in future trading profits. In that case, your optimized system is more likely to cause a long string of losses rather than profits. Testing a long moving average and comparing the results to a short moving average is fine, and so is testing a few points in between a long moving average and a short moving average. As long as you use this exercise to understand why short moving averages work best for short‐term trades and why longer moving averages work better for traders with longer trading horizons, you’ll be fine. Otherwise, you’re probably moving into the realm of curve fitting and becoming frustrated with your actual trading results. Testing with blind simulation Blind simulation is a method for setting aside enough historical data so you can test your system‐optimization results and avoid the problem of curve fitting. For example, you may test data from 1990 through 1999 and thus exclude data from 2000 through the present. After you’ve developed a system that looks good enough for you to base your trades on, you can then test your system against the data that was excluded. If the system performs as well with the excluded data as it did with the original test data, you may have a system worth trading. If it fails, you obviously need to rethink your system. Another approach is choosing your historical data with extreme care. You can expect trend‐following systems like a moving‐average system to perform well during long, powerful trends. If your stock had a strong run up during the long‐lasting 1990s bull market, that kind of price data can skew your results, magically making any trend‐following system appear profitable. Whether that success actually can be duplicated during a subsequent bull market, however, must first be thoroughly tested. If the majority of your profits come from a single trade or only a small number of trades, the system probably won’t perform well when you begin trading real money. You may want to address this problem by excluding periods from your test data when your stock was doing exceptionally well or when the results of any trades were significantly more profitable than the average trade. This technique is a valid approach to eliminating the extraordinary results arising from extraordinary situations in your historical data. Using it should give you a better idea of your system’s potential for generating real profits in the future.

Cheat Sheet / Updated 05-17-2022

Cryptocurrency mining is a relatively new concept that started slowly and has, over about a decade, developed into an entire industry with a wild-west-gold-rush reputation. The mining of “digital gold” in the form of cryptocurrencies is often painted as a get-rich-quick scam, with comparisons to tulip mania and the gold rushes of years past. Indeed, the industry is rife with hype, scams, and misleading promotions, and there’s a lot of room for error. However, there are profitable mining ventures, and there is still room for you, as a new miner, to profit from cryptocurrency mining if you do your research, do your homework, and plan carefully.

Article / Updated 05-17-2022

Finding quality, affordable professional service providers can be a challenge. As can finding the myriad other service providers you may seek, such as an auto repair shop or a plumber. All of us have the battle scars from the school of hard knocks and making bad hiring decisions. Getting referrals from folks you know often doesn't pan out — and for good reason. Just because your friend or neighbor has had good experiences with a given contractor doesn't mean you will or that you value the same things in a provider. The Internet has long held the promise of being an information source and exchange for consumers interested in hearing the straight scoop about service providers, but message boards rarely have a critical mass of comments about locally focused companies. Firms such as Kudzu, which is owned by media conglomerate Cox Enterprises, provides consumers free reviews on companies, but here's a case where you may well get less than you paid for. Anyone can complete a simple registration by providing an email address, name, and zip code, and many service providers have just one or a few reviews. Due to the anonymity of the reviews and lack of screening, company owners, employees, and friends can easily post puffed-up reviews while competitors can easily criticize their peers. After reviewing numerous websites that purport to help consumers separate the best service providers from the rest, the sections that follow highlight those that I've found are doing the best job. On some ratings sites, companies are solicited to buy enhanced listings, and this disguised advertising may make them more appealing to prospective customers. For example, Kudzu's "Enhanced Profile" service promises the paying company "Higher placement in search" as well as the ability to add photos and video and a marketing description. Angie's List Angie's List subscribers get access to data and customer feedback on a wide range of service providers in their local market area. The service boasts more than 3 million members in hundreds of markets around the United States. Angie's List, which began operations in 1995, uses proprietary technology to process reports, and one of a team of thirty people employed by Angie's List reads every report before it gets posted. Reports praising your own business or dissing a competitor's are ferreted out and removed. As happens on eBay, customers and businesses can respond to one another. When Angie's List receives a report on an unregistered company, that company is allowed to register for free. By registering, the company can then respond by posting to each customer's report. Consumers may not report anonymously, but their identity is only disclosed to the companies they rate. Angie's List also offers conflict resolution when a customer and company are at odds over their interaction. Angie's List says that they have a "zero-tolerance policy" about companies hassling a customer over the posting of negative comments. The report is posted live for all members to see, which obviously offers an incentive for the service company to resolve the issue quickly. If the service company resolves the complaint to the customer's satisfaction, the dispute is considered "resolved" and the negative report is removed from the service company's record. That's the leverage Angie's List uses to get complaints resolved. The member can then choose to file a new report, but if they do, they must grade the company at a B or above. However, the member is not obligated to file another report. Co-founder Angie Hicks never really considered the advertising-only model so often used online when she started her company. "We offer a premium service with high-quality information. Consumers are willing to pay for good information. Consumers are looking for trusted filters," says Hicks. Angie's List has not totally forsaken ads. The company offers coupons from highly rated service companies. Companies pay to run coupons and must have an A or B rating. Like a school report card, grades range from A (best) to F (worst). If a company has any unresolved complaints, it can't advertise, regardless of its overall grade. (Note: At the time that this book goes to press in late 2017, Angie's List may merge into the parent company that owns HomeAdvisor.) HomeAdvisor HomeAdvisor (formerly Service Magic), another large online provider of service-company referrals, doesn't rely on member subscriptions. With HomeAdvisor, you register for free and provide personal information, including your home address and details of what you're looking for, and several companies, which have paid HomeAdvisor an annual membership (advertising) fee of about $300, will contact you offering their services. Home-Advisor argues that such fees weed out people who may be operating as a sideline or on a short-term basis and lead to higher-quality, committed contractors being listed on their site. HomeAdvisor, which is focused on home improvement, repair, and maintenance firms, also has a ratings and review feature where customers can rate the company. To prevent bogus reviews, HomeAdvisor only allows consumers who have found contractors through their service to rate and evaluate those contractors. Here's how their service works: Suppose you're seeking a contractor to build you a wooden deck. After completing background information on the HomeAdvisor site about your planned project, your information would be sent to three contractors in your area who would contact you, arrange a meeting to discuss your project, and give you a proposal (with some contractors, you can actually schedule these appointments through the HomeAdvisor site). Unlike other services, including Angie's List, HomeAdvisor screens all contractors, who must meet numerous criteria including being properly licensed within their state, carrying general liability insurance coverage, and passing a criminal and financial background check (which uncovers negatives such as liens, bankruptcies, and judgments), among other items. In addition to paying HomeAdvisor an annual membership fee of $300, contractors pay HomeAdvisor a lead fee, depending upon the type of work and ranging from $10 to $50, for each lead they are sent. HomeAdvisor's model allows contractors to target clients by zip code and task, which allows them to be more focused in their prospecting and spend less time driving long distances. Other resources Another resource worth checking out is Consumers Checkbook, which compiles service-provider data in the following metro areas: Boston, Chicago, Delaware Valley (Philadelphia area), Puget Sound (Seattle area), San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose, Twin Cities, and Washington, D.C. Checkbook is a nonprofit founded in 1974. Like Consumer Reports, it doesn't accept any advertising or money from companies it reviews. In addition to its website, it publishes Consumer's Checkbook magazine in seven local versions for each of the metro areas. Another option for checking out service providers is to access the Better Business Bureau (BBB) website in your area, which you can locate through their national site. BBB information, which is available without a fee to you the consumer, may tell you if the company you're considering has any recent black marks but will hardly give you a thorough review of many customers' experiences like those you will find on sites like HomeAdvisor or Angie's List. BBBs are non-profits that collect fees from member companies. Thus, they have similar conflicts of interest that Angie's List and Home Advisor have in being "pro" business.

Cheat Sheet / Updated 05-13-2022

Managing your money is crucial at all stages of your adult life — whether you’re interviewing for your first job, in the thick of your prime earning years, or enjoying your retirement. Some crucial aspects of managing your finances include taking stock of your finances, using a budget, building your savings, and investing your money.

Article / Updated 05-12-2022

If you talk with others or read articles or books about prepaying your mortgage, you’ll come across those who think that paying off your mortgage early is the world’s greatest money-saving device. You’ll also find that some people consider it the most colossal mistake a mortgage holder can make. The reality is often somewhere between these two extremes. Everyone has pros and cons to weigh when they decide whether prepaying a mortgage makes sense. In some cases, the pros stand head and shoulders over the cons. For other people, the drawbacks tower over the advantages. At the crux of the decision is the fact that you’re paying interest on the borrowed mortgage money, but if you use your savings to pay down the loan balance, you won’t then have that money working for you earning an investment return. More importantly, what happens if that rainy day comes along and you need those handy cash reserves? Interest savings: The benefit of paying off your mortgage early Mortgage prepayment advocates focus on how much interest you won’t be charged. On a $100,000, 30-year mortgage at 7.5 percent interest, if you pay just an extra $100 of principal per month, you shorten the loan’s term significantly. Prepayment cheerleaders argue that you’ll save approximately $56,000 over the life of the loan. It’s true that by making larger-than-required payments each month, you avoid paying some interest to the lender. In the preceding example, in fact, you’ll pay off your loan nearly ten years faster than required. But that’s only part of the story. Read on for more. Quantifying the missed opportunity to invest those extra payments When you mail an additional $100 monthly to your lender, you miss the opportunity to invest that money into something that could provide you with a return greater than the cost of the mortgage interest. Have you heard of the stock market, for example? Over the past two centuries, the U.S. stock market has produced an annual rate of return of about 9 percent. Thus, if instead of prepaying your mortgage, you put that $100 into some good stocks and earn 9 percent per year, you end up with more money over the long term than if you had prepaid your mortgage (assuming that your mortgage interest rate is below 9 percent). Conversely, if instead of paying down your mortgage more rapidly, you put your extra cash in your bank savings account, you earn little interest. Because you’re surely paying more interest on your mortgage, you lose money with this investment strategy, although you make bankers happy. If you’re contemplating paying down your mortgage more aggressively than required or investing your extra cash, consider what rate of return you can reasonably expect from investing your money and compare that expected return to the interest rate you’re paying on your mortgage. As a first step, this simple comparison can help you begin to understand whether you’re better off paying down your mortgage or investing the money elsewhere. Over the long term, growth investments, such as stocks, investment real estate, and investing in small business, have provided higher returns than the current cost of mortgage money. Taxes matter but less than you think In most cases, all of your mortgage interest is deductible on both your federal and state income tax returns. Thus, if you’re paying, say, a 6 percent annual interest rate on your mortgage, after deducting that interest cost on your federal and state income tax returns, perhaps the mortgage is really costing you only about 4 percent on an after-tax basis. For most people, approximately one-third of the total interest cost of a mortgage is offset by their reduced income tax from writing off the mortgage interest on their federal and state income tax returns. However, don’t think that you can simply compare this relatively low after-tax mortgage cost of, say, 4 percent to the expected return on most investments. The flaw with that logic is that the return on most investments, such as stocks, is ultimately taxable. So, to be fair, if you’re going to examine the after-tax cost of your mortgage, you should be comparing that with the after-tax return on your investments. Alternatively, you could simplify matters for yourself and get a ballpark answer just by comparing the pretax mortgage cost to your expected pretax investment return. (Technically speaking, this comparison isn’t as precise as the after-tax analysis because income tax considerations generally don’t exactly equally reduce the cost of the mortgage and the investment return.)

Article / Updated 05-12-2022

Life can throw you some financial curveballs, but you don't have to be at the mercy of financial markets even if you're not able to control them. To protect against financial uncertainties, use the following strategies: Plan for life's certainties and prepare for life's uncertainties. Invest in and protect your ability to earn money; it's likely your most valuable asset. Adequately insure yourself, your stuff, and your income stream. Minimize or eliminate debt, and focus on building a great credit score. Maintain an emergency reserve fund. Invest for your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Diversify your portfolio across a broad mix of asset classes. Monitor and rebalance your portfolio to maintain your target asset allocation.

Cheat Sheet / Updated 05-03-2022

Make smart trading decisions using candlestick charting. This cheat sheet shows you how to read the data that makes up a candlestick chart, figure out how to analyze a candlestick chart, and identify some common candlestick patterns.

Cheat Sheet / Updated 05-03-2022

The major commodities exchanges trade specific commodities worldwide, and the main regulatory organizations provide information and enforce codes to protect commodities investors. When investing in commodities, use guidelines and advice from the experts to lower your risks.

Cheat Sheet / Updated 05-02-2022

Dark pools and high frequency trading (HFT) are contentious subjects in financial markets. Billions of dollars are traded through dark pools, and HFT algorithms with just small, incremental price differences make billions of dollars. And it all can happen in milliseconds. Most importantly, dark pools and HFT are part of the current market environment. Anyone who’s invested in the markets needs to know what they’re involved with and what they’re up against.